2016 bellwether counties

Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . What science tells us about the afterlife. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? | FiveThirtyEight Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. Trump won the other 18 counties. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). It requires a lot more than pure luck.). A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Outstanding. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. 10. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. Seriously. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Enter Donald Trump. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Free and open-source. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Just how big is it? You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. 3. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. It gets a lot more interesting. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. Contributors wanted We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Telegram Telegram But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. These counties could play an . Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. In 2020, a single. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? 9. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. 2020 Election (1210) Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Bellwether - Wikipedia Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. 11. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. (subject to censorship). ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. Do you know this baby? Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county.

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